How Spies Think: Ten Lessons in Intelligence

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How Spies Think: Ten Lessons in Intelligence

How Spies Think: Ten Lessons in Intelligence

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The book also contains some interesting 'inside track' on successes and failures in the work of intelligence agencies as well as making clear what the fact patterns were behind some spy events that made headlines, like the poisonings of Sergei Skripal and his daughter and Alexander Litvenenko. Sir David Bruce Omand (1947) is, met meer dan een halve eeuw praktijkervaring, een icoon in de inlichtingen- en veiligheidswereld.

Om deze tekortkomingen tegen te gaan, wijst Omand net als Edward Syed in Rebel Ideas op het belang van cognitieve diversiteit in een organisatie: “In group discussions it helps to have one or more contrarians, those who by inclination like swimming against the tide and thus help surface all the relevant arguments” (123).Across five decades, intelligence, its uses and pervasion in public society have been shaped and altered by a wide array of world events and technological advances. And perhaps it's a little odd that Professor Omand does not take the trouble to list the several failures of the JIC over the years, regardless of his beautiful formula: p(N)/E=p(N. Het vertegenwoordigt de vier soorten informatie waaruit een inlichtingenproduct kan bestaan en de verschillende analyseniveaus waaruit ze zijn afgeleid.

The section on dealing with the deluge of disinformation and deception is also useful and well worth the time of anyone keen to see our democracies live up to their potential as opposed to being dragged down by demagogues. You might not change your initial assessment in the face of mounting evidence against it (perseveration) or fail to collect information about deprioritised threats (limited information). Hij corrigeert daarmee het heersende transactionele beeld als zou internationale inlichtingensamenwerking vooral gelijkenis vertonen met het ‘ruilen van postzegels’. With this grounding in place, Omand goes on to explain mistakes made and why they matter to the bigger picture. In particular the SEES model with four phases: Situational awareness, Explanation, Estimates and forecasts and Strategic Notice.Generally the event or person never disclose the real truth coz you always see through your linear mind. jest wprowadzić człowieka w błąd, a w dzisiejszym cyfrowym świecie, łatwo jest manipulować informacjami i łatwo je nagłaśnieć. From that, you need to assess different scenarios of what might happen if events unfold in particular ways. Parts of the book did feel like there were more of a memoir of his time in various government departments and was loosely linked to the lesson being discussed. g. Heuer tables, Bayesian thinking (although the content on the latter is overwrought)) are insightful.

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